***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 20.5 21.8 22.4 -1.0 34.5 41.5 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.8 23.5 22.5 -0.7 39.6 44.1 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 21.3 22.4 22.4 -1.1 34.9 41.3 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 13.8 14.1 20.8 -1.1 33.9 39.9 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 21.4 21.9 20.8 -1.2 32.4 39.3 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.1 -1.0 36.9 41.3 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 21.2 23.2 22.4 -0.8 37.5 43.6 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 9.7 10.5 19.1 -1.3 29.9 37.7 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 20.7 21.3 21.1 -1.3 32.2 39.2 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 20.8 21.4 19.8 -1.4 31.2 38.1 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 21.0 21.8 20.3 -1.2 32.3 39.1 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 20.3 20.9 20.1 -1.3 30.3 38.4 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 21.2 21.8 19.7 -1.2 30.8 39.0 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 21.4 21.6 20.4 -1.5 30.9 37.7 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 21.9 22.7 21.3 -1.0 39.1 41.3 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 21.9 22.5 20.1 -1.1 32.4 39.6 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 21.1 23.0 22.3 -0.7 39.3 44.4 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 20.3 21.1 19.0 -1.5 30.6 37.6 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.3 22.5 22.5 -0.8 38.6 43.5 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 15.3 16.1 16.9 -1.5 28.5 36.9 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 20.9 21.7 21.8 -1.2 31.6 39.9 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 21.4 23.6 22.1 -0.9 38.3 43.0 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 21.5 22.6 22.1 -1.1 34.0 41.4 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 20.6 21.5 20.5 -1.4 32.4 38.5 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 21.2 22.0 20.9 -1.2 32.4 40.0 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.4 19.5 -1.1 34.0 40.0 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 20.8 22.7 21.6 -1.1 34.2 41.1 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 21.3 22.1 21.1 -1.1 36.9 40.6 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 15.3 15.8 17.9 -1.5 29.6 37.0 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 21.5 22.7 22.6 -0.8 38.7 43.5 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------