***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 24.2 23.7 22.5 -0.1 51.9 50.7 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.6 23.0 0.4 62.4 57.7 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.9 22.6 0.0 53.2 52.2 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.5 20.1 -0.2 46.7 49.3 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.5 23.7 20.6 -0.4 46.8 47.5 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 22.5 21.6 18.0 -0.7 46.4 44.8 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.3 24.6 22.7 0.1 56.6 53.4 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.1 18.4 -0.7 44.7 46.0 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.9 21.6 -0.3 48.9 49.0 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.7 19.7 -0.4 47.7 48.0 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 23.7 22.9 20.2 -0.5 45.6 46.6 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 22.8 21.9 19.1 -0.7 42.7 44.6 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.0 19.1 -0.9 43.6 43.0 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.4 21.2 -0.1 52.8 51.5 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.8 21.8 0.0 49.8 51.5 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.7 19.8 -0.6 45.4 45.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 23.4 24.7 22.8 0.5 61.2 58.1 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.7 18.9 -0.4 50.5 49.1 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 23.9 25.0 23.0 0.4 61.4 57.3 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.0 16.5 -0.7 44.4 46.2 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.0 22.3 -0.2 49.7 49.5 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.1 25.4 22.6 0.4 60.2 57.6 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.9 22.6 0.2 56.7 54.6 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.5 20.9 -0.2 52.1 50.4 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 24.2 23.5 21.1 -0.3 47.4 48.0 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 22.8 22.1 18.3 -0.9 43.4 43.1 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 23.9 23.4 21.8 -0.2 49.7 49.0 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.5 24.0 20.8 -0.1 49.0 50.3 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.0 17.9 -0.5 50.2 48.6 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.5 25.3 23.0 0.2 59.1 55.2 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------