***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 13.6 -0.1 49.4 48.1 11.8 12.3 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.5 13.7 0.1 55.0 52.0 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.9 13.5 -0.1 50.8 49.3 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.8 11.4 -0.2 47.8 46.3 8.2 9.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.0 11.3 -0.2 50.3 46.5 10.2 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.4 9.5 -0.3 46.2 45.0 9.2 9.4 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.7 12.3 13.7 0.1 52.5 51.2 12.0 12.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 4.4 9.3 -0.3 46.9 44.2 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.7 -0.2 49.2 46.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.6 10.0 -0.2 47.2 45.6 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.2 10.8 -0.2 49.3 45.4 10.9 11.2 11.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.1 9.5 10.1 -0.3 45.9 43.5 9.2 9.7 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.8 9.8 -0.3 45.9 43.1 10.3 11.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.2 11.6 -0.2 48.1 46.7 11.8 12.2 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 12.2 -0.1 47.2 48.0 12.1 12.3 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 11.3 11.8 10.6 -0.3 48.1 45.0 11.5 11.8 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.4 13.4 0.0 52.4 51.0 12.1 12.3 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.9 9.2 -0.2 44.5 44.9 9.8 9.9 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.6 0.1 54.5 51.9 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.0 7.4 -0.3 42.4 43.5 5.7 6.2 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.8 -0.2 46.7 46.2 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.9 13.3 0.1 54.2 52.2 11.3 11.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.1 13.2 0.0 51.9 50.3 11.2 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.7 11.3 -0.2 46.4 46.4 11.2 11.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.0 -0.3 44.1 44.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.9 -0.4 43.1 41.6 10.2 10.6 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.4 12.8 -0.2 47.4 47.0 11.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.8 -0.1 48.3 47.4 10.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.6 -0.3 42.4 44.2 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.6 13.8 0.1 54.1 51.7 12.1 12.5 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------