***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.9 15.9 0.8 65.0 60.5 12.2 13.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.4 16.2 1.0 71.0 63.3 12.0 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.7 15.9 0.8 66.6 61.5 13.8 14.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.6 13.7 0.5 62.1 57.9 8.6 9.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.5 13.5 0.5 61.6 57.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.3 11.7 0.4 62.0 56.7 9.9 11.0 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.3 16.2 0.9 69.1 62.7 12.4 13.2 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 11.5 0.3 56.9 55.5 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 13.9 0.6 59.9 58.5 11.7 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.0 12.2 0.5 58.4 57.3 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.9 13.0 0.4 60.0 57.2 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 12.4 0.3 57.9 54.7 9.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 12.0 0.2 61.8 54.5 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.6 13.9 0.6 63.6 59.6 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 0.5 62.4 58.2 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.3 12.8 0.4 62.4 56.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.5 15.8 0.9 69.3 62.9 12.5 13.6 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.8 11.5 0.5 57.9 57.5 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.3 16.1 1.0 69.9 63.4 12.3 13.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.3 9.7 0.4 55.2 55.7 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.1 15.0 0.6 61.6 58.7 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.2 15.7 0.9 70.6 63.6 11.9 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.8 15.6 0.9 67.2 62.7 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.2 13.7 0.6 62.5 59.4 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 14.2 0.5 60.5 57.8 11.7 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 12.2 0.2 58.5 52.6 11.1 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.1 15.1 0.7 63.4 59.6 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.3 14.0 0.5 63.4 58.2 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.2 10.8 0.5 58.2 57.0 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.4 14.5 16.3 1.0 70.4 62.9 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------