***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 11.1 10.9 11.8 -0.4 46.5 45.6 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.2 11.8 -0.2 46.7 47.4 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 12.9 12.6 11.6 -0.4 47.7 44.9 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 8.1 7.4 9.6 -0.3 45.7 46.1 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 10.0 9.8 9.8 -0.3 47.8 45.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.8 8.4 7.6 -0.6 40.3 39.9 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 11.3 10.9 11.9 -0.2 46.6 48.0 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 3.8 3.2 7.5 -0.6 42.2 41.3 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 10.7 10.3 10.2 -0.4 45.5 43.7 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 10.6 10.3 8.4 -0.5 43.2 42.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 10.2 9.6 9.1 -0.5 39.8 41.0 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.7 8.0 8.1 -0.6 40.8 40.6 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.6 8.1 -0.6 40.9 40.7 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 11.2 10.5 10.0 -0.5 44.4 43.0 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 10.9 10.7 10.8 -0.2 46.9 46.7 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 11.2 10.5 8.8 -0.5 40.9 41.9 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.4 11.0 11.6 -0.2 46.1 47.3 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.0 8.7 7.4 -0.5 43.6 41.8 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.2 10.8 11.7 -0.3 46.5 46.6 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.2 4.8 5.3 -0.6 43.0 41.7 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.5 11.3 -0.4 46.8 44.2 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 10.5 10.0 11.6 -0.1 46.0 47.4 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 10.9 10.5 11.3 -0.4 44.9 45.0 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.7 10.3 9.6 -0.5 43.8 41.8 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 11.0 10.6 10.5 -0.6 43.2 42.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.7 7.8 -0.6 43.8 41.2 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.3 10.9 11.1 -0.4 44.7 44.8 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 9.4 9.1 10.1 -0.3 46.2 46.2 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.5 6.9 -0.5 42.4 41.2 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 11.1 10.8 12.0 -0.3 46.9 47.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------