***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 40.8 49.2 56.5 81.3 38.9 39.3 42.1 57.9 72.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 40.2 51.5 52.3 82.8 38.1 39.8 47.3 57.9 67.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 40.0 58.6 57.4 83.7 41.4 41.4 52.2 61.7 86.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 54.6 58.6 61.0 80.3 40.8 38.2 54.7 73.2 86.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 47.2 54.8 57.2 79.6 36.6 38.1 51.9 60.7 71.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 41.2 49.1 70.7 84.0 37.9 39.0 42.4 57.8 75.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 36.3 48.2 52.5 82.9 39.2 40.0 37.5 53.6 60.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 79.3 85.0 68.8 81.6 36.4 38.7 80.3 91.4 112.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 42.5 43.1 60.2 80.2 37.0 38.4 41.9 54.8 72.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 48.0 54.8 70.6 79.9 35.7 37.7 52.5 61.1 79.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 36.8 40.7 55.2 78.9 34.8 37.0 39.4 49.7 58.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 43.5 46.4 55.4 80.0 36.5 38.1 45.5 56.1 64.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 39.9 40.1 59.5 78.2 35.6 36.6 39.8 53.8 63.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 61.2 67.4 76.7 85.5 38.4 42.5 63.4 79.3 92.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 38.3 45.7 52.8 78.7 41.0 39.0 43.2 47.3 55.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 43.6 40.7 57.4 80.2 36.8 37.8 39.2 60.3 70.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 43.8 43.9 51.2 83.5 38.3 40.4 42.1 57.0 70.6 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 57.3 62.8 78.8 82.0 35.4 38.7 60.2 74.7 83.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 43.0 58.6 54.1 84.5 40.9 41.5 50.1 66.5 86.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 49.1 53.8 79.4 86.1 36.1 40.3 51.7 65.4 82.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 38.6 50.6 57.9 81.9 40.4 39.6 46.4 54.2 65.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 41.9 52.8 55.3 87.4 42.2 43.5 47.0 55.6 73.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 37.6 48.2 57.4 87.1 43.9 44.1 42.1 48.5 65.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 59.5 61.7 69.8 81.9 36.6 40.0 59.6 74.2 84.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 43.2 46.0 62.3 80.0 37.1 37.9 45.0 57.1 71.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 37.7 43.5 52.3 76.3 36.1 35.0 42.5 56.3 64.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 43.1 43.2 60.8 80.4 37.7 38.2 40.3 60.8 73.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 40.5 43.1 58.6 80.1 41.4 38.6 41.6 49.2 62.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 70.0 78.8 80.7 83.9 36.5 39.4 77.2 81.9 106.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 34.5 41.9 53.6 82.5 39.9 39.7 39.1 44.4 78.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------