***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.1 23.4 17.5 99.0 59.3 47.8 8.2 17.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.6 17.1 13.5 85.7 54.0 44.8 9.5 15.0 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 11.9 24.5 17.8 102.7 58.7 48.3 7.8 20.9 33.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.6 22.5 16.7 92.9 60.3 46.2 10.1 16.5 26.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.6 22.3 16.7 96.1 58.8 45.3 11.4 15.1 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.3 15.8 21.2 102.2 59.2 47.5 10.8 13.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 6.8 15.5 13.2 82.8 53.4 43.7 6.1 13.7 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 17.6 31.3 21.0 99.4 54.3 46.3 23.0 28.5 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 11.4 22.0 18.2 97.3 58.1 45.3 10.6 19.6 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.5 15.8 22.0 97.9 55.2 45.6 10.0 13.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 8.7 16.3 16.1 98.8 57.0 45.6 10.7 14.9 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.1 13.8 16.5 99.0 56.6 46.7 7.5 10.3 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 6.1 16.0 17.5 94.7 56.2 45.6 6.0 11.6 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 16.9 31.0 21.4 95.4 57.1 46.6 16.4 25.0 36.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.9 11.3 13.7 91.4 60.6 44.5 5.9 9.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 6.7 14.4 16.8 100.7 57.5 46.9 7.2 10.6 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.0 14.4 11.7 77.0 52.9 42.0 5.9 14.0 32.1 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 14.0 25.8 25.1 100.1 55.6 46.9 17.3 21.3 31.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.9 23.0 14.8 92.8 57.4 46.7 5.2 19.8 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 10.1 24.1 24.1 101.3 56.7 48.7 7.3 18.6 27.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.3 17.9 17.4 99.2 59.4 47.4 10.2 14.7 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 8.7 20.2 13.3 82.8 55.2 44.3 8.6 18.4 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.7 24.3 16.3 101.3 60.4 48.6 13.2 19.5 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 12.2 25.3 21.3 99.7 56.7 47.2 15.9 22.2 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.2 22.3 17.6 91.7 60.1 46.2 11.6 17.0 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.0 13.5 85.7 51.1 42.7 4.9 10.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.8 19.5 17.9 93.9 59.0 46.7 8.1 16.0 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.7 18.1 16.7 97.3 60.9 46.0 5.8 12.5 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.3 30.7 24.7 100.2 56.7 47.7 15.8 26.0 33.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.7 17.9 15.0 90.6 55.4 45.8 10.1 16.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------