***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.4 15.0 84.3 59.1 48.7 1.9 5.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.1 15.0 90.6 58.3 47.9 1.9 7.1 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.7 15.0 85.5 56.8 47.7 1.8 4.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.1 14.2 17.0 86.7 58.2 48.3 4.6 9.9 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.9 15.5 87.9 58.9 48.0 3.1 7.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 20.0 94.8 56.0 48.7 7.3 11.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.8 15.6 94.1 59.9 49.6 1.3 4.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.6 27.5 18.5 95.5 58.3 49.1 12.1 22.2 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.0 15.7 16.5 87.9 58.8 48.1 2.8 9.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.6 11.7 18.9 90.1 56.4 48.0 5.3 10.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 15.1 94.1 60.2 49.4 7.4 8.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.6 15.1 15.5 93.0 56.9 47.8 8.6 13.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.2 18.1 93.1 56.2 46.8 3.2 8.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.8 14.6 20.0 88.2 57.3 49.0 8.9 13.4 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.2 14.2 76.3 55.4 46.3 3.4 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.0 16.6 93.1 59.2 48.3 6.3 11.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.5 15.4 96.0 60.2 49.6 2.2 6.2 11.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 14.9 21.0 88.9 53.5 47.7 7.6 14.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.2 15.0 89.9 57.5 48.6 2.7 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.0 21.2 98.3 57.9 50.7 8.2 11.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.4 15.3 85.5 57.7 48.1 4.1 6.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.0 16.4 99.9 62.1 50.7 4.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.5 14.8 88.2 58.0 49.8 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.0 12.7 18.4 85.7 56.9 47.6 9.8 12.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.7 16.9 84.3 56.4 47.5 3.7 8.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.2 9.9 14.9 87.7 51.3 44.6 5.9 9.6 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.3 16.5 84.7 57.5 48.2 1.6 7.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.8 13.7 16.0 83.5 57.9 47.7 3.7 9.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.9 19.1 21.4 91.9 56.0 49.2 11.1 14.7 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 15.1 88.7 57.7 47.7 3.2 6.3 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------