***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.7 17.0 14.0 81.2 50.8 45.6 12.6 16.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.6 13.0 14.8 94.9 57.9 48.9 7.8 12.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.4 13.9 14.0 83.2 53.7 44.9 10.1 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.5 13.3 16.2 84.6 53.6 45.8 10.4 13.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.1 14.5 13.7 76.1 47.1 41.7 9.4 15.3 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 13.1 18.1 86.3 50.5 46.4 6.6 12.9 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 14.9 94.2 58.8 49.9 4.8 12.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.0 23.7 15.3 81.3 50.8 45.2 14.7 23.4 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.1 10.9 13.6 74.7 45.3 40.5 8.8 13.1 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.5 14.8 15.3 79.3 48.5 43.6 12.0 15.4 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.0 11.1 13.5 74.5 46.2 40.8 5.7 13.3 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 10.2 13.2 78.5 49.6 44.6 8.1 10.3 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.5 9.7 15.3 80.2 49.1 44.7 4.9 9.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.4 20.6 20.4 99.8 60.1 48.1 16.4 18.8 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.0 16.4 92.4 59.0 48.3 4.4 9.4 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.4 10.0 14.8 79.0 46.8 43.1 7.0 11.5 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.6 15.6 100.8 62.4 51.5 3.6 8.6 11.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 16.5 17.9 87.6 52.3 45.6 6.8 15.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.2 14.6 93.3 56.9 48.0 9.7 13.0 20.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.1 18.6 91.3 53.2 47.7 10.7 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 9.9 18.0 13.9 79.8 49.5 42.6 9.0 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.8 13.5 15.6 98.7 59.9 49.9 5.7 10.1 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 15.5 96.3 58.6 47.8 8.7 13.0 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 16.8 17.1 86.5 53.2 44.0 12.6 15.2 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.1 17.0 83.4 54.0 44.8 6.8 12.7 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.7 13.4 14.8 84.0 53.3 47.3 5.6 13.1 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.9 18.1 16.2 83.6 53.0 45.3 8.8 17.4 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.9 16.0 87.7 54.5 47.3 8.3 12.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.6 21.7 19.7 91.4 52.9 46.4 14.6 18.8 35.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.9 13.9 14.0 88.5 55.3 46.3 9.5 12.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------