***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 3.9 10.1 59.7 41.8 36.3 3.6 9.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.3 9.0 59.0 40.9 35.8 3.1 5.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.0 4.3 10.6 62.9 45.1 38.4 2.5 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.8 11.2 57.7 39.0 34.7 5.0 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.3 11.4 60.3 42.3 35.6 5.2 8.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.0 6.0 11.4 53.5 31.7 30.9 6.2 8.5 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.2 8.8 58.5 42.9 35.3 1.8 3.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.7 8.2 14.1 56.3 32.8 31.3 8.2 16.0 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 3.9 11.9 61.5 39.9 35.1 3.4 5.1 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.2 5.8 14.2 56.6 34.8 32.3 4.9 9.4 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.4 10.6 53.7 39.6 33.3 3.8 4.8 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.0 10.2 53.5 34.1 31.2 3.8 7.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.0 3.8 8.7 45.4 31.7 29.4 3.8 4.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.6 15.0 61.9 42.2 36.9 3.1 9.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.7 8.5 54.2 43.9 35.7 2.8 5.8 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.9 4.1 9.2 50.4 34.8 31.5 3.7 7.3 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.5 3.8 8.5 58.1 39.1 34.7 2.7 7.9 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 8.1 14.9 55.4 32.4 31.2 8.7 14.6 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.9 5.8 9.7 61.5 41.9 37.1 2.3 12.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.7 15.5 59.5 33.8 32.5 4.5 8.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.5 11.3 63.5 43.1 37.3 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.6 10.0 66.6 44.7 38.3 2.9 7.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.3 10.8 63.7 41.9 37.6 2.6 5.7 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.6 5.9 13.0 57.5 38.3 34.6 4.6 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.1 9.5 10.9 59.3 42.8 36.6 4.6 12.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.6 2.7 9.2 50.4 33.3 30.3 2.6 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.2 10.2 57.6 40.8 35.4 4.2 10.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.3 9.9 53.5 38.9 33.6 3.7 7.1 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.5 7.7 15.0 56.1 32.7 31.5 7.8 19.5 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.2 9.5 61.1 45.6 37.2 1.8 6.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------