***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.4 24.7 1.3 74.1 69.1 23.2 24.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.3 24.6 1.1 70.2 66.0 23.6 24.3 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.7 24.9 1.3 74.3 68.2 23.3 24.1 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.1 21.7 1.0 69.5 66.4 16.0 16.8 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 25.7 25.9 22.8 1.2 74.7 68.7 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.0 20.1 1.0 70.8 66.7 22.1 23.0 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 24.8 24.7 24.4 1.0 68.2 65.0 23.2 23.7 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.7 21.0 1.3 74.3 69.4 11.6 12.4 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 25.2 25.3 23.4 1.3 75.4 69.4 23.0 23.9 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 25.1 25.5 21.9 1.4 75.5 70.3 22.9 23.6 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 24.9 25.1 23.1 1.4 76.3 70.3 23.4 24.1 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 24.2 24.2 22.3 1.3 73.5 68.6 22.1 23.2 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.1 22.0 1.3 74.6 68.9 23.3 24.4 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 25.4 25.8 23.0 1.4 76.8 70.6 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 25.5 26.0 23.5 1.0 70.2 66.1 23.5 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.0 22.4 1.2 74.2 68.8 24.0 24.8 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.0 24.5 1.3 73.5 68.5 22.7 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 24.4 24.8 21.1 1.4 75.1 70.1 22.5 23.1 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 24.7 25.0 24.7 1.2 71.7 66.8 23.1 23.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 19.6 20.1 18.6 1.3 75.3 69.9 17.7 18.5 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 25.4 25.8 24.4 1.4 77.6 70.7 23.3 23.9 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 25.2 25.1 24.4 1.4 75.8 69.4 23.6 24.1 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 25.1 25.5 24.7 1.2 73.7 67.8 23.5 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.1 22.9 1.3 74.9 69.6 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.5 23.1 1.2 72.7 68.6 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.7 21.6 1.3 75.3 69.0 22.9 23.8 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 24.9 25.5 23.9 1.3 73.9 68.9 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.8 22.5 1.1 71.4 67.5 23.5 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 19.6 19.9 20.2 1.4 76.1 70.9 17.7 18.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.2 24.6 1.0 69.7 65.2 23.1 23.9 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------