***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.3 24.7 0.6 57.3 57.5 23.8 26.1 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.7 24.4 0.3 56.4 54.9 23.0 25.0 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.8 24.8 0.4 57.4 56.4 23.5 25.1 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 19.0 18.3 22.3 0.5 56.5 57.3 15.3 17.5 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 26.4 25.8 22.9 0.5 55.5 57.3 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 24.5 23.5 20.4 0.6 59.1 57.0 22.1 22.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.1 24.2 0.2 55.4 54.0 23.1 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.0 13.6 21.1 0.5 58.3 56.1 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 26.0 25.3 23.0 0.5 55.8 57.2 22.3 24.7 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 25.7 25.2 21.7 0.5 57.8 56.7 22.7 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 26.3 25.6 22.7 0.5 56.2 56.7 23.1 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.1 22.4 0.5 58.0 56.4 21.9 23.1 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 25.8 25.4 21.6 0.6 59.8 57.5 23.0 24.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.9 26.4 22.4 0.3 58.3 54.6 23.1 24.3 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.0 23.5 0.6 58.9 57.6 23.7 25.3 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 26.5 25.9 22.3 0.6 58.7 57.4 23.8 24.9 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.1 24.2 0.4 57.8 55.2 22.5 24.4 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.8 21.0 0.4 59.0 55.8 21.7 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.1 24.5 0.3 56.7 55.1 22.9 24.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.9 18.4 0.5 59.5 55.8 16.7 19.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 26.1 25.2 24.1 0.7 57.9 58.2 22.8 24.9 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.2 25.6 24.0 0.4 59.4 55.1 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.4 24.3 0.3 55.8 54.6 23.2 24.9 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.1 22.5 0.3 57.4 55.2 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.0 22.9 0.6 57.3 58.2 23.1 25.3 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 24.9 24.6 21.9 0.7 60.1 57.5 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.4 26.0 23.8 0.6 57.3 57.7 22.9 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 26.4 25.4 22.7 0.6 58.7 58.0 23.7 25.1 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 20.2 19.9 0.4 59.2 55.6 16.3 19.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.6 24.4 0.3 55.5 54.6 23.1 25.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------