***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 25.5 26.5 24.6 1.9 77.1 67.5 22.2 23.3 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 26.1 26.6 24.2 1.4 69.8 62.3 22.5 24.7 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.6 24.6 1.8 74.9 65.3 22.3 24.3 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 19.3 20.2 21.5 1.8 76.7 67.5 14.4 17.2 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 26.4 27.4 22.8 1.9 75.4 67.9 22.3 24.0 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 24.7 25.7 20.0 1.5 74.5 64.8 21.0 22.7 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 25.5 25.9 24.0 1.3 69.0 61.8 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.1 20.7 1.7 74.6 65.7 10.6 12.9 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 25.6 26.1 23.4 1.9 76.2 67.7 21.6 23.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 25.9 26.5 21.7 1.8 76.2 66.8 22.0 23.8 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.5 23.1 1.9 75.6 67.9 22.0 23.7 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 24.9 25.4 21.9 1.6 73.6 65.8 21.4 22.7 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 26.0 26.9 21.9 1.6 74.9 65.4 22.6 24.2 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.7 22.7 1.6 71.6 64.3 21.9 24.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 26.2 27.7 23.7 1.7 78.3 67.2 22.5 23.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 26.6 27.3 22.3 1.7 75.2 66.7 22.8 24.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.5 24.0 1.6 70.0 63.4 22.6 23.7 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.8 20.7 1.7 73.6 65.0 21.4 23.4 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.9 24.3 1.5 70.8 62.9 22.4 23.9 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 20.6 20.6 18.3 1.6 72.7 64.4 16.9 18.7 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 26.0 26.9 24.4 2.0 78.5 68.1 21.9 23.9 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.1 26.1 23.9 1.6 70.4 63.4 22.4 24.5 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 26.1 26.2 24.3 1.6 71.4 63.6 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.9 22.8 1.7 73.0 64.9 21.6 23.6 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 26.3 27.2 23.0 1.9 76.6 67.6 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.1 26.0 21.1 1.6 78.4 65.6 21.9 23.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 25.5 26.4 23.8 1.9 76.5 67.0 22.3 23.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 26.5 27.9 22.5 1.8 78.1 68.2 21.8 23.4 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 20.6 21.0 19.9 1.7 73.1 64.5 16.4 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 26.0 26.4 24.2 1.4 70.1 62.5 22.6 24.0 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------