***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 24.8 25.2 23.7 1.8 71.7 69.9 22.2 23.1 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.8 24.1 1.9 73.8 71.7 22.6 24.2 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.6 24.0 1.9 74.0 71.6 22.4 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 17.0 17.3 19.3 0.7 59.1 58.9 15.1 16.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.1 24.9 21.6 1.5 69.3 67.1 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 23.4 23.0 18.8 1.1 66.4 62.8 20.7 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 24.9 25.5 23.7 1.8 74.3 71.5 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 13.4 13.9 20.0 2.1 75.5 72.7 10.0 11.4 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 24.5 24.7 22.8 1.8 73.7 69.9 22.1 23.0 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 24.2 24.3 21.1 2.2 76.6 73.3 21.9 22.5 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 24.2 24.5 22.6 2.1 74.9 72.2 21.7 23.0 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 24.0 23.8 21.0 1.9 73.5 70.6 21.0 21.9 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 24.6 24.5 21.8 1.7 73.0 69.5 21.7 22.9 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 25.7 26.8 23.3 2.9 84.4 80.9 22.1 23.9 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 24.0 24.1 22.2 0.6 59.6 58.6 22.1 23.6 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 25.3 24.9 21.5 1.5 70.8 67.6 22.5 23.6 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 25.1 25.7 24.1 2.5 79.5 77.3 21.2 22.9 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 24.3 24.9 20.3 2.4 78.3 74.9 21.6 22.3 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.1 25.5 24.2 2.1 75.6 73.3 21.6 23.7 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 19.4 19.8 18.2 2.4 77.1 74.4 16.5 17.1 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 24.8 25.0 23.7 1.9 73.6 71.0 22.3 23.3 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 25.6 25.9 24.3 2.8 82.2 80.1 21.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 25.6 26.1 24.4 2.4 78.8 76.0 22.0 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 24.9 25.7 22.8 2.4 80.0 75.8 22.4 23.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 23.9 25.0 22.0 1.3 66.2 65.3 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 23.6 24.4 20.2 1.9 74.0 70.0 21.0 21.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 24.7 25.0 23.0 1.6 70.5 69.1 22.0 23.6 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 24.0 24.7 20.6 0.8 60.8 59.9 22.1 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 19.5 20.5 19.8 2.7 80.9 77.4 16.5 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 25.1 25.6 23.9 1.7 72.2 69.7 22.1 24.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------