***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.7 12.8 14.2 0.8 72.2 68.0 11.6 12.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.7 13.9 0.6 66.8 64.9 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.5 14.2 0.7 68.6 65.4 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.7 9.2 11.1 0.3 59.6 58.8 8.1 8.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.2 11.8 0.6 68.7 65.5 10.2 10.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 9.0 0.2 58.3 56.8 9.1 9.3 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.5 13.8 0.5 64.0 62.1 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.0 9.1 0.4 67.9 62.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.1 11.9 0.6 71.0 66.5 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.1 10.1 0.5 69.9 64.0 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.7 11.1 0.5 68.3 63.8 10.7 11.2 11.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.9 9.9 10.0 0.4 65.9 61.3 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.0 9.5 0.2 59.1 56.1 10.2 10.9 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.7 11.6 0.5 68.1 63.1 11.7 12.0 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 12.5 0.3 56.6 58.2 12.1 12.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.0 10.4 0.3 59.2 57.9 11.5 11.6 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.0 13.6 0.7 67.6 65.1 12.0 12.1 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.6 9.3 0.4 70.0 62.3 9.6 9.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.6 13.9 0.7 68.1 65.3 11.7 12.0 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 6.6 6.6 7.3 0.5 68.9 63.1 5.7 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.1 13.3 0.7 71.7 67.0 11.2 11.7 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.0 13.6 0.7 70.4 65.8 11.1 11.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.5 13.7 0.6 68.4 64.5 11.0 11.8 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.0 11.4 0.5 68.7 63.0 11.0 11.7 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.5 12.9 0.7 70.9 66.8 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.7 9.1 0.3 61.8 59.2 10.1 10.5 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.0 13.6 0.8 71.6 67.5 11.7 12.3 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.9 10.6 11.5 0.3 57.2 58.3 10.1 10.5 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.2 8.6 0.5 70.4 62.9 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.0 14.1 0.6 66.5 64.4 11.8 12.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------