***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.6 15.3 0.4 59.1 56.4 11.6 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.1 15.0 0.3 55.8 54.9 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.1 15.4 0.4 59.8 56.5 13.5 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.3 12.8 0.5 61.0 58.2 8.3 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.0 12.8 0.5 60.4 58.2 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.7 10.7 0.5 60.9 58.4 9.6 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 0.2 54.8 54.4 12.0 13.4 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.3 10.4 0.3 57.6 55.8 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.9 12.9 0.4 60.6 57.5 11.5 12.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.1 12.9 11.3 0.4 60.2 57.1 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.4 12.2 0.4 60.8 57.6 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.8 11.3 0.3 57.0 55.9 9.4 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.1 10.7 0.3 59.4 57.2 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.0 13.4 12.9 0.4 59.4 57.7 11.9 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.5 14.1 0.5 60.2 58.2 12.8 13.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.3 11.7 0.4 61.0 58.2 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.8 14.8 0.3 56.2 55.0 12.3 13.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.0 11.3 10.5 0.4 60.3 57.9 10.3 10.8 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 15.1 0.3 56.4 55.5 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.0 8.1 0.3 55.7 56.0 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.7 14.4 0.5 60.9 57.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.0 14.7 0.3 56.6 55.8 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.2 14.9 0.3 57.3 56.0 11.3 12.8 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.5 12.7 12.6 0.4 60.8 57.5 11.3 12.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.2 13.7 0.4 58.1 56.8 11.2 12.6 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.9 11.8 10.5 0.3 58.5 56.4 10.3 11.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.7 14.5 0.4 57.9 56.0 11.4 12.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.2 13.2 0.5 62.2 58.9 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 10.7 9.9 9.8 0.4 59.3 57.3 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.5 15.2 0.2 56.2 54.9 12.2 13.0 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------