***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.9 13.1 14.5 0.4 59.5 56.3 11.7 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.2 14.1 0.2 55.3 54.5 11.6 13.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.2 14.5 0.4 58.4 56.0 13.2 15.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 11.9 0.4 59.2 56.0 8.2 9.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.5 12.0 0.4 58.7 56.1 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.3 9.8 0.4 61.3 57.2 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.6 13.2 14.1 0.2 54.7 53.7 11.5 12.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 9.6 0.3 58.3 54.9 3.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.4 12.1 0.4 58.0 55.8 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.3 10.5 0.4 58.6 55.5 11.2 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 11.4 0.4 58.3 55.8 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 10.5 0.3 58.2 55.3 9.0 10.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.6 10.0 0.4 58.8 56.2 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.1 11.8 0.3 57.9 54.9 11.9 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.9 13.2 0.4 57.5 56.0 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.6 10.8 0.4 59.2 56.4 11.4 12.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.5 13.9 0.2 55.6 54.1 12.0 12.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.9 9.6 0.3 59.7 55.6 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 14.1 0.3 55.6 54.9 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.1 7.4 0.3 57.7 55.3 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.4 13.6 0.5 59.3 56.7 11.0 12.1 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.5 13.7 0.2 56.7 54.4 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.8 13.9 0.2 56.2 54.8 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.5 11.6 0.3 58.8 55.3 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.7 13.0 0.4 60.1 55.6 11.6 12.3 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.2 9.7 0.4 59.6 56.6 9.8 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.9 13.8 0.4 59.2 55.5 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.3 12.3 0.5 59.5 56.7 10.2 10.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.7 9.0 0.3 60.0 55.5 7.8 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.6 13.1 14.3 0.2 55.3 54.6 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------