***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.2 13.9 1.0 70.5 63.7 11.6 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.2 13.4 0.8 65.7 60.8 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.9 13.8 0.9 67.9 62.2 13.0 13.4 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.5 10.9 0.9 66.6 63.0 7.3 8.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.9 11.5 0.9 67.1 63.0 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.5 8.8 0.7 64.7 60.5 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 13.4 0.8 63.8 59.9 10.9 12.3 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.2 8.7 0.7 65.2 59.8 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.2 11.6 0.9 68.2 63.3 10.7 11.6 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.2 9.7 0.8 66.3 61.0 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.1 10.9 0.8 67.1 61.8 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.1 9.8 0.7 64.9 60.1 8.6 9.8 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 9.4 0.5 59.7 57.7 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.1 11.3 0.7 66.1 61.3 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.9 12.6 1.0 66.6 65.0 11.5 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 10.2 0.6 61.2 59.3 11.0 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.5 13.2 0.9 65.1 61.1 11.5 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.4 9.0 0.7 64.8 60.5 8.8 9.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.4 13.5 0.8 66.3 61.2 11.5 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.4 7.1 0.7 62.0 60.2 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.1 13.0 1.0 69.7 64.1 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.5 13.3 0.9 66.4 62.0 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.6 13.3 0.8 66.3 60.9 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.5 11.2 0.8 67.4 61.6 10.4 11.2 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.0 12.7 1.1 68.9 64.2 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.9 8.9 0.6 60.1 59.4 9.7 10.6 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.6 13.3 1.0 70.3 64.0 11.4 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.3 11.4 0.9 66.1 63.7 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.2 8.4 0.8 65.7 61.0 7.4 8.5 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.5 13.6 0.8 66.0 60.8 11.5 12.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------