***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 12.0 12.0 13.3 1.4 69.6 69.9 10.0 10.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.5 12.9 1.2 69.3 69.6 10.0 11.4 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 13.0 13.6 13.1 1.0 65.9 66.3 11.5 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 8.4 7.3 8.6 -0.6 40.8 40.7 6.9 8.1 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 9.7 9.8 10.7 0.6 58.5 59.3 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.7 6.4 -0.8 34.4 36.1 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 10.8 11.9 12.6 0.9 64.1 63.8 9.8 10.6 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 3.5 4.1 7.7 0.5 57.3 58.0 2.8 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 10.2 11.1 11.1 0.9 65.2 66.2 9.5 10.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 10.2 10.7 8.9 0.7 60.8 61.7 9.6 10.1 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 9.9 10.2 10.0 0.4 57.7 57.5 9.3 9.8 10.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 96 4 100 8.3 8.2 8.6 0.2 52.3 53.4 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.2 8.0 -0.5 38.0 39.6 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 10.7 10.9 10.2 0.4 59.2 58.7 9.4 10.5 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 10.9 10.6 10.2 -0.7 37.8 37.4 10.3 10.7 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 10.7 9.9 8.7 -0.5 40.5 41.4 9.9 10.5 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.5 12.6 1.3 70.6 69.8 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 8.6 8.6 8.0 0.3 54.7 55.9 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.6 13.0 1.3 70.3 70.2 9.9 10.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 5.1 5.3 6.5 0.6 59.4 60.3 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 10.4 11.2 12.2 0.9 65.4 64.9 9.6 10.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 11.5 11.6 12.8 1.3 74.0 71.2 9.4 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.9 12.7 1.1 69.4 68.9 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 10.4 10.8 10.3 0.5 58.6 59.2 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 10.8 11.3 12.1 1.1 65.5 65.2 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 9.6 8.9 7.4 -0.1 45.3 46.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.4 12.8 1.3 68.5 68.5 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.5 8.6 9.0 -0.8 36.4 36.4 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 8.0 8.4 7.3 0.4 58.1 57.9 6.6 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 49 51 100 11.8 12.4 13.1 1.2 68.7 68.3 9.9 10.9 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------