***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 71.4 74.3 85.2 137.1 74.8 70.0 39.2 56.3 62.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 61.6 67.0 70.1 120.9 69.2 63.4 46.0 58.8 64.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 86.3 87.6 77.4 124.5 70.4 64.7 46.8 64.8 80.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 90.5 94.8 85.3 124.7 72.8 64.9 54.5 71.9 81.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 65.4 72.5 81.6 124.3 70.4 64.0 50.5 62.0 69.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 63.9 65.2 86.4 108.0 61.4 54.9 52.0 58.8 69.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 65.2 66.9 72.7 127.3 73.4 66.0 32.7 50.0 58.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 100.7 102.2 81.7 101.4 55.5 51.4 83.1 92.5 108.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 60.1 69.5 81.9 120.0 66.3 61.1 42.8 54.8 69.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 65.5 87.8 108.5 59.5 55.2 54.5 64.4 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 52.8 53.1 75.4 112.1 63.7 57.6 40.6 50.7 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 57.7 60.3 71.4 101.6 55.4 51.5 45.0 52.5 64.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 51.1 47.0 75.5 100.8 55.0 51.7 40.1 45.3 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 81.2 84.6 87.8 105.3 55.8 54.4 61.4 74.1 91.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 51.9 65.3 78.2 130.5 72.5 64.5 42.9 48.1 51.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 60.7 62.5 75.3 110.5 60.2 57.1 45.2 58.6 63.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 63.7 67.6 69.5 124.7 69.3 64.6 39.0 44.0 64.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 76.0 72.4 92.5 102.6 54.2 52.1 57.3 67.8 84.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 74.0 80.7 70.2 117.7 66.8 61.8 50.1 69.8 80.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.5 65.4 86.6 96.6 51.2 47.9 46.9 65.3 76.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 59.9 63.6 81.3 127.8 69.5 64.8 51.9 58.4 63.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 57.1 67.2 70.8 122.3 67.4 61.9 46.5 53.0 66.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 53.4 58.5 71.0 113.5 62.2 59.5 41.9 49.1 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 81.1 80.6 85.0 108.4 57.0 55.7 57.8 76.9 83.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 72.6 82.4 97.2 141.8 77.7 72.0 43.4 56.2 68.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 53.5 48.7 67.8 98.3 49.8 49.6 41.8 48.9 62.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 75.1 81.7 94.6 142.1 76.6 71.8 35.2 61.0 78.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 55.0 62.2 79.0 119.7 68.6 61.1 40.4 50.8 61.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 91.5 85.6 91.3 101.1 54.8 51.6 72.0 83.7 97.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 74.6 79.4 73.3 124.1 70.0 64.6 35.0 48.8 73.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------