***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.2 20.0 14.2 100.4 64.8 54.3 8.1 14.0 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.4 17.2 12.2 90.8 59.3 50.9 7.7 11.8 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 22.5 24.4 13.1 92.5 64.2 54.4 9.3 17.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.1 15.6 101.3 65.3 55.8 11.5 13.8 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.1 20.6 16.0 104.0 65.5 56.4 8.4 12.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.3 17.2 18.5 111.2 66.3 55.3 10.5 13.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.5 12.5 94.6 58.6 50.0 5.3 8.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 26.8 29.4 17.9 102.3 61.5 54.4 16.5 23.7 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 19.0 23.4 16.4 103.1 65.3 56.3 10.9 17.3 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.5 18.2 18.6 101.2 61.1 55.1 9.0 14.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.7 14.3 98.3 62.6 54.3 9.1 14.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.5 15.3 14.9 99.1 62.8 54.4 6.8 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.8 13.7 16.1 98.7 63.0 54.3 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.9 24.6 17.5 88.0 59.2 52.0 14.9 21.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.9 12.6 96.8 65.3 54.2 5.4 9.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 15.3 15.2 101.3 64.2 55.0 7.8 10.6 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.3 12.1 98.1 63.2 49.5 5.0 14.4 20.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 22.6 27.1 20.6 98.5 61.4 55.1 12.5 21.0 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 22.9 23.0 11.9 86.1 59.0 50.7 5.9 19.6 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 15.7 21.0 19.8 100.3 60.0 54.4 8.8 12.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.4 23.0 15.4 106.6 68.7 57.1 9.5 15.0 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 18.0 20.6 11.6 85.6 59.9 47.6 5.6 13.2 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 20.5 21.3 12.0 84.3 56.3 50.5 9.2 18.7 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.0 16.9 91.6 60.6 53.8 10.0 23.1 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 20.1 23.0 16.9 108.6 66.8 55.6 10.6 18.0 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.6 13.5 98.9 64.2 54.6 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.2 21.4 16.3 106.0 66.4 54.9 7.2 14.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.0 15.4 14.8 98.3 64.3 54.8 7.8 11.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 23.6 27.8 20.6 100.6 61.7 55.1 13.5 21.2 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 14.1 18.2 12.3 88.4 59.3 51.7 7.4 11.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------