***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.6 13.6 20.9 136.2 72.7 61.6 3.9 8.6 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.2 16.2 15.7 114.0 70.8 58.7 3.1 7.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.3 19.8 123.3 69.3 57.6 2.9 5.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 25.3 22.3 128.6 70.3 57.4 3.8 11.1 24.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.3 16.0 22.3 132.6 70.6 56.8 6.0 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.5 17.7 25.4 118.1 67.1 53.5 6.8 12.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.0 12.1 17.0 121.0 70.7 59.3 2.8 7.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.8 21.7 100.0 55.6 49.4 15.9 25.1 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.4 17.4 23.2 127.4 69.1 56.2 3.5 10.8 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.6 24.6 111.2 60.5 52.5 7.6 11.0 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.0 19.9 117.1 63.3 53.5 6.9 9.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.0 19.2 104.4 57.7 50.5 7.4 13.5 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.5 22.0 109.6 65.1 52.0 5.1 9.2 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.8 13.6 23.6 103.1 60.3 51.3 8.4 11.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.5 17.8 20.9 139.2 75.9 58.5 3.9 6.1 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.6 17.7 21.5 121.2 68.0 54.8 5.6 11.4 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.9 15.9 16.6 118.3 72.3 56.4 2.8 5.7 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 12.4 27.0 106.4 61.9 53.2 8.3 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 11.9 16.4 112.9 68.2 57.0 3.1 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.6 25.1 98.2 58.8 50.4 8.5 12.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.6 21.8 129.1 68.5 57.6 4.0 6.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.3 18.3 125.3 69.8 55.9 5.8 7.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.8 17.6 110.7 67.2 54.1 2.6 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 19.0 24.2 112.1 65.9 54.3 8.7 12.0 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 14.0 24.6 140.9 72.7 61.4 2.6 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.4 17.5 18.9 101.9 62.4 51.5 8.4 13.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.7 15.5 23.4 140.6 73.8 62.2 3.0 7.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.2 20.2 22.2 133.0 71.9 57.4 4.6 11.8 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.7 20.6 26.4 103.0 60.9 52.2 12.9 19.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.7 17.0 119.3 71.1 59.5 4.8 5.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------