***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.7 19.8 19.8 111.3 62.8 53.7 12.2 15.3 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 14.1 16.1 100.0 57.9 50.2 9.5 12.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.1 17.9 102.3 58.5 50.7 9.0 11.9 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.3 13.5 15.3 88.5 57.5 49.8 8.3 12.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.2 15.5 89.5 60.0 50.7 10.2 16.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.7 11.2 17.1 80.7 49.1 44.3 5.5 11.5 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.3 14.9 16.1 103.4 60.3 50.7 5.7 12.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.5 18.4 15.5 82.7 49.6 45.8 12.3 18.5 27.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.0 16.2 93.3 55.2 49.2 7.5 13.1 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 14.4 17.4 89.7 52.1 47.3 8.6 14.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.3 16.4 89.0 58.7 49.8 3.7 12.5 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.9 9.1 13.6 75.6 49.3 44.0 5.8 9.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.7 10.8 15.8 81.7 52.2 47.2 5.5 10.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.2 21.6 19.9 92.6 60.6 49.5 9.0 18.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 9.7 15.9 16.3 101.0 61.1 53.5 4.4 7.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.3 12.8 15.2 84.2 55.9 48.4 7.7 11.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.0 14.0 91.7 53.7 47.9 3.5 8.6 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 16.0 18.8 86.5 51.4 44.7 7.8 15.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 18.5 19.4 16.1 96.9 57.1 49.5 10.7 16.1 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.2 10.9 17.3 75.2 38.3 38.8 10.2 15.1 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 19.0 18.7 16.7 98.1 58.6 50.5 8.6 18.2 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.8 15.1 98.8 59.6 52.0 5.7 10.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.4 16.6 93.9 56.7 49.6 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.7 15.6 18.0 88.0 54.5 46.4 12.6 14.7 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.3 14.6 20.4 100.7 59.5 52.4 7.5 12.2 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.0 9.8 15.8 83.4 50.8 46.1 3.0 9.6 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.1 21.0 21.4 110.6 62.1 54.1 8.1 14.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.9 10.9 14.2 88.1 58.2 49.7 7.4 10.4 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.7 16.7 18.9 82.0 46.5 42.9 12.8 17.4 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.7 13.8 17.5 107.1 62.6 51.6 9.2 12.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------