***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 21.3 28.5 30.2 204.4 86.7 81.6 3.6 9.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 13.5 17.7 26.1 178.1 81.0 75.7 3.7 6.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 18.1 23.1 26.6 184.6 83.5 77.7 2.2 8.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 26.6 31.2 32.2 174.9 84.5 76.6 2.8 11.0 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 18.0 23.9 27.9 172.7 84.6 76.0 3.0 8.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.3 19.9 25.4 122.2 71.0 62.4 7.1 8.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 13.7 19.0 27.1 189.9 82.9 77.6 2.5 4.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 19.7 21.0 26.7 117.3 69.3 60.4 9.4 18.3 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.0 21.2 26.2 155.3 81.6 72.7 3.7 6.4 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 14.7 17.3 27.2 129.7 73.6 64.4 7.7 10.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 12.9 15.5 24.9 145.2 75.9 67.7 3.8 6.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.8 15.5 23.7 126.2 70.2 62.7 4.5 7.7 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.7 21.6 112.4 66.5 59.2 3.2 7.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 18.9 18.5 26.7 139.6 72.9 67.9 3.0 10.1 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 16.2 22.2 28.4 180.2 84.1 74.9 3.4 8.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.4 15.9 23.3 135.0 75.4 64.4 2.7 8.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 19.7 25.8 26.8 190.1 83.5 77.6 3.1 7.8 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.6 17.5 26.1 118.0 66.5 61.4 6.6 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 17.9 21.7 25.8 175.5 81.9 75.2 6.0 11.7 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.9 12.5 24.4 114.4 65.3 58.8 4.1 7.3 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 20.9 25.0 27.5 179.2 82.2 77.0 2.4 9.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 17.3 22.7 25.8 178.9 80.8 74.6 4.2 7.2 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.8 20.4 24.8 167.6 81.3 75.2 2.8 8.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 18.5 21.1 26.0 144.3 73.6 68.0 5.2 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 24.2 33.0 35.4 230.6 92.3 85.6 5.3 10.0 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.1 12.3 19.5 110.2 65.6 59.7 3.6 6.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 18.4 39.0 33.5 220.9 90.1 84.8 4.1 9.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.9 18.3 27.8 153.9 80.4 70.5 3.5 7.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.2 23.6 25.5 120.2 66.6 61.8 7.1 17.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 16.3 30.0 26.6 181.7 82.8 77.3 2.2 7.4 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------