***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 22.8 -0.4 40.7 42.7 23.2 23.9 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.9 22.8 -0.4 41.6 43.5 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.7 23.0 -0.4 39.1 42.8 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.3 20.1 -0.7 39.5 39.9 16.0 16.7 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.7 23.9 21.1 -0.5 42.0 43.3 23.6 24.3 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 23.1 22.7 18.8 -0.3 46.2 46.9 21.9 22.8 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.4 22.9 -0.2 43.6 45.9 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 12.5 12.0 19.2 -0.3 45.9 46.6 11.5 12.3 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 24.1 23.5 21.6 -0.4 42.1 44.6 22.8 23.9 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.2 20.1 -0.3 44.3 45.9 22.7 23.5 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.2 23.8 21.1 -0.4 43.6 45.3 23.1 24.0 24.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 23.4 22.9 20.2 -0.4 45.7 46.2 22.0 23.2 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.0 20.1 -0.3 47.3 47.0 23.1 24.1 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.8 21.5 -0.3 45.5 45.7 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.7 21.5 -0.8 38.1 37.4 23.5 24.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.3 20.5 -0.4 45.7 45.8 23.8 24.4 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 23.8 23.4 22.7 -0.2 44.3 46.3 22.6 23.5 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.4 23.1 19.5 -0.3 46.2 47.1 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.9 23.5 22.8 -0.4 40.2 42.5 23.0 23.7 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 18.5 18.0 17.2 -0.2 48.4 48.4 17.5 18.3 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.5 22.5 -0.5 41.2 42.7 23.2 23.9 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.7 22.5 -0.3 41.3 43.9 23.5 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.4 23.9 22.7 -0.4 41.0 43.1 23.5 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.9 23.3 21.4 -0.3 44.2 45.1 22.9 23.5 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.6 21.3 -0.6 39.5 41.2 23.3 23.9 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 23.7 23.5 19.5 -0.2 48.4 49.3 22.7 23.6 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.3 22.1 -0.4 40.2 42.7 22.9 23.9 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.7 23.6 20.6 -0.7 40.2 39.6 23.4 24.3 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 18.5 18.2 18.7 -0.2 48.0 48.0 17.5 18.3 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.6 22.9 -0.4 40.6 43.4 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------