***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.3 24.5 -0.4 45.8 47.3 22.2 24.8 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.4 24.7 -0.1 49.1 50.4 23.5 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.3 24.7 -0.3 45.8 47.6 22.3 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.9 22.1 -0.8 38.0 42.3 15.5 16.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 23.2 23.8 22.6 -0.6 38.6 43.8 22.6 25.0 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.6 20.2 -0.6 39.8 43.3 22.1 23.5 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.3 24.8 0.0 49.3 51.5 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.3 20.9 -0.4 45.2 45.5 11.0 12.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.9 -0.5 40.9 45.0 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.5 21.6 -0.4 43.1 45.4 22.2 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.7 22.3 -0.5 41.0 44.6 23.4 24.8 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 21.7 23.0 21.9 -0.4 45.2 45.4 22.4 23.4 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 23.0 24.3 21.1 -0.5 42.9 44.7 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.3 24.0 22.9 -0.2 46.4 48.5 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 24.0 24.4 22.9 -0.9 37.6 41.0 23.7 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 23.5 24.5 21.8 -0.6 41.5 44.2 23.7 25.4 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.1 24.7 0.1 51.6 52.4 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.9 22.5 21.2 -0.3 44.7 46.7 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.7 24.6 -0.2 47.2 49.4 23.0 24.0 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.0 18.1 18.7 -0.3 47.3 46.5 17.3 18.5 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.8 23.9 -0.5 41.1 45.5 22.1 24.6 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.3 24.4 0.0 49.4 50.8 23.3 24.4 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.1 24.5 -0.2 45.3 48.7 23.2 24.8 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 22.0 23.6 22.8 -0.3 44.6 47.3 22.3 23.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.1 23.7 22.7 -0.6 42.1 44.8 22.6 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 22.7 24.2 21.3 -0.3 48.0 47.2 22.6 24.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.9 23.7 -0.4 45.0 47.1 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 24.2 24.5 22.2 -0.8 37.6 41.3 23.8 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 16.8 18.3 20.3 -0.3 45.8 47.1 17.5 18.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.6 24.6 -0.1 47.4 49.8 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------