***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 26.2 25.4 23.1 -0.5 47.0 47.7 22.7 25.9 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.0 23.1 -0.5 47.5 48.3 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 25.5 24.6 23.3 -0.6 45.8 47.2 23.6 25.1 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.5 17.4 20.8 -0.8 44.7 44.5 15.9 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.4 24.1 21.4 -0.6 43.1 46.5 23.3 24.9 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.6 19.3 -0.3 48.7 49.4 22.2 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.8 23.3 -0.3 49.1 49.8 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.2 19.7 -0.4 46.8 48.8 11.0 12.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.8 23.3 21.7 -0.6 41.5 47.3 22.7 24.3 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.9 20.4 -0.5 43.8 48.4 22.8 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.4 21.1 -0.5 44.6 48.0 23.0 24.5 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.3 20.7 -0.4 46.9 48.2 21.5 23.5 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.4 20.0 -0.4 47.3 48.6 22.9 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.0 21.4 -0.5 41.2 47.9 23.5 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.5 24.5 21.6 -0.8 43.8 42.9 23.7 25.0 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.6 24.7 20.7 -0.5 46.0 48.1 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.5 23.2 -0.3 50.0 50.4 22.5 24.5 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 22.9 19.9 -0.4 44.0 49.0 21.9 23.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.4 23.1 -0.6 45.9 47.5 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 18.1 17.5 -0.3 46.8 49.7 16.6 18.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.3 23.7 22.6 -0.7 43.7 46.5 23.2 25.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.4 24.8 22.8 -0.4 49.4 48.8 22.7 24.9 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.3 23.0 -0.6 44.5 47.5 23.1 25.0 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.7 21.4 -0.6 43.0 47.7 22.8 24.4 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.6 23.8 21.4 -0.6 43.5 46.1 23.0 25.3 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.4 20.2 -0.1 52.3 51.4 22.3 23.3 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.0 22.4 -0.5 46.1 48.1 22.8 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.5 24.1 21.0 -0.8 43.9 44.0 23.5 25.0 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.1 18.3 19.1 -0.4 45.4 49.4 16.8 18.6 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.1 23.2 -0.5 48.3 48.1 23.2 25.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------