***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 23.7 22.5 21.6 -0.7 40.1 42.0 22.2 23.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.4 23.3 21.6 -0.7 40.8 42.7 22.6 24.9 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.2 23.0 21.8 -0.8 40.2 42.1 22.1 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.8 14.8 19.0 -0.7 38.3 41.0 14.3 17.2 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.1 23.5 20.0 -0.7 38.8 42.2 22.1 24.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.3 22.0 17.9 -0.5 42.8 43.6 21.4 22.7 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.7 23.2 21.7 -0.5 42.1 44.4 22.6 24.3 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.0 11.9 18.3 -0.3 43.6 45.3 10.9 12.4 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.7 22.7 20.7 -0.6 38.6 42.9 21.9 24.1 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.3 22.8 19.2 -0.5 41.0 44.1 22.3 23.7 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.4 22.9 20.2 -0.6 41.1 43.0 22.5 23.9 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 23.6 22.3 19.2 -0.4 43.1 44.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 24.7 23.4 19.3 -0.6 43.5 43.0 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.3 22.7 20.5 -0.4 39.5 45.2 22.0 24.8 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.1 22.7 20.8 -0.9 36.1 39.5 22.6 24.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 25.1 23.1 19.6 -0.6 42.1 43.0 22.7 24.5 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.0 21.5 -0.5 40.9 44.3 22.2 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 22.1 18.6 -0.3 41.9 45.6 21.6 23.3 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.6 22.6 21.6 -0.8 38.8 42.1 22.0 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 17.9 16.5 -0.1 46.1 47.5 16.9 18.3 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.7 23.0 21.5 -0.7 39.1 42.2 22.0 24.2 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.1 23.3 21.3 -0.7 36.3 42.9 22.6 24.7 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.0 22.8 21.6 -0.6 38.8 42.9 22.6 24.5 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.6 22.4 20.4 -0.5 39.0 44.3 21.8 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.7 22.8 20.3 -0.8 38.2 40.8 21.9 24.1 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 24.1 23.1 18.4 -0.4 43.3 44.8 22.3 23.7 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.7 22.6 21.0 -0.7 39.8 42.0 22.2 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.7 22.2 19.7 -0.8 38.5 40.8 22.0 23.8 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.2 17.5 17.9 -0.2 44.3 46.7 16.5 18.6 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.7 22.9 21.7 -0.7 41.4 42.5 22.2 24.2 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------