***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 23.5 23.3 21.8 -0.1 46.8 48.4 21.5 23.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 23.5 23.5 21.9 -0.2 47.3 47.7 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 96 4 100 23.9 23.7 22.1 -0.1 48.7 50.2 21.5 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 15.8 15.5 18.5 -0.4 45.8 47.5 15.0 15.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 23.6 23.7 20.3 0.0 52.0 52.3 22.2 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 21.6 21.8 18.0 0.3 53.4 54.3 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 23.2 23.0 21.9 0.0 48.9 49.6 21.8 23.1 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 95 5 100 11.1 11.0 18.0 -0.1 52.0 51.0 9.2 11.0 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 23.3 23.3 21.3 0.1 52.2 53.1 21.3 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 22.2 22.5 19.3 0.1 53.9 53.4 21.1 22.1 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 22.7 22.8 20.7 0.1 53.8 53.5 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 22.0 21.9 19.0 -0.1 50.7 50.6 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 22.4 22.4 20.2 0.3 53.4 54.9 21.3 22.2 23.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 98 2 100 23.4 23.6 21.1 0.1 52.6 52.7 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 23.1 22.2 20.9 -0.6 42.6 43.7 21.9 22.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 23.5 23.5 20.1 0.2 53.6 54.2 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 22.4 22.3 21.6 -0.1 48.7 48.6 21.2 22.3 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 22.1 22.4 18.4 0.0 52.9 52.4 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 23.2 22.8 21.9 -0.2 46.8 47.6 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 98 2 100 16.6 16.6 16.1 -0.3 48.8 49.4 15.9 16.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 23.4 23.4 22.0 -0.1 50.1 51.0 21.3 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 23.4 23.2 21.5 -0.2 47.0 47.4 22.0 23.3 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 97 3 100 23.5 23.4 21.9 -0.1 49.4 49.5 22.6 23.5 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 96 4 100 23.1 23.2 20.9 0.1 52.9 52.7 21.4 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 23.1 23.0 20.7 -0.2 47.5 48.3 21.7 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 21.7 21.6 18.1 0.0 51.5 51.9 20.8 21.5 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 23.5 23.0 21.3 -0.2 46.9 48.0 21.3 23.4 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 23.3 22.7 19.6 -0.4 47.6 47.5 21.8 23.1 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 97 3 100 17.1 17.0 17.7 -0.1 51.4 51.5 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 23.3 23.0 22.0 -0.1 47.7 48.5 22.1 23.2 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------