***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 13.5 0.2 52.0 54.5 11.5 11.7 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.3 13.3 0.2 54.2 55.5 11.5 12.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.5 13.6 0.1 49.5 52.4 12.9 13.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.5 10.9 0.0 50.2 51.8 7.8 8.5 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.8 11.3 0.1 53.7 53.2 10.1 10.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.3 8.9 0.1 53.1 53.4 9.0 9.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.0 13.4 0.3 54.9 56.4 11.6 11.9 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.3 8.9 0.1 50.1 53.1 3.8 4.3 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.3 11.5 0.1 50.0 53.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.2 9.9 0.1 49.1 53.3 10.9 11.2 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.1 10.7 0.1 50.5 52.4 10.6 11.1 11.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.4 9.8 0.1 52.0 53.5 8.8 9.3 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.8 9.6 0.1 54.4 54.4 10.2 10.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.1 11.9 11.5 0.2 53.7 55.5 11.6 11.9 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 12.2 0.0 51.7 53.1 11.9 12.2 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.5 10.3 0.1 53.0 54.1 11.2 11.5 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 13.2 0.3 55.6 56.2 11.7 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 9.8 9.4 0.2 50.6 54.1 9.3 9.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.8 13.2 0.2 51.2 53.9 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.0 7.3 0.2 53.4 56.6 5.4 5.9 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.3 12.9 0.1 49.3 52.4 10.9 11.3 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.4 13.0 0.2 51.7 53.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.5 13.1 0.2 48.9 53.4 10.9 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.5 11.3 0.1 50.0 53.0 10.9 11.5 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 12.3 0.1 51.8 53.4 11.2 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.4 10.5 9.1 0.2 56.8 55.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.3 13.0 0.2 53.9 54.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.4 11.2 0.0 51.1 52.5 10.0 10.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.6 8.7 0.2 51.8 55.1 7.8 8.6 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.2 13.5 0.2 51.7 55.1 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------