***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 11.6 13.1 14.9 0.1 56.3 53.4 11.7 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.4 14.9 0.3 62.0 56.6 11.5 12.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.8 15.1 0.1 57.9 53.8 12.9 14.4 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.6 12.4 0.0 53.4 51.2 8.1 9.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.4 12.5 0.0 54.9 51.9 10.7 11.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.0 10.3 0.0 48.1 51.2 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.7 15.0 0.5 64.4 57.5 11.9 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.2 10.3 0.1 52.8 52.5 4.0 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.4 12.3 12.8 0.1 57.1 53.2 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.5 11.3 0.1 54.8 52.6 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.8 11.9 0.0 52.7 51.8 11.2 11.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.5 11.1 0.1 52.7 52.5 9.8 10.4 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.5 0.0 51.8 51.6 10.9 11.3 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.3 12.9 0.2 57.0 54.8 11.9 12.9 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.2 13.6 -0.1 50.3 50.5 13.0 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.4 11.4 0.0 51.9 51.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.5 14.8 0.4 63.2 57.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.9 10.8 0.1 54.7 53.4 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.3 14.8 0.2 59.9 55.5 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.0 8.3 0.1 52.9 52.4 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.2 14.2 0.1 57.2 53.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 14.6 0.3 58.9 56.7 11.5 12.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.8 14.7 0.1 57.8 54.5 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 12.7 0.1 55.3 53.7 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.7 13.4 0.0 58.5 52.2 11.1 12.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.1 10.4 0.1 53.6 53.9 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.6 14.2 0.1 58.3 53.4 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.2 12.7 0.0 51.2 51.6 10.8 11.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.0 10.0 0.1 53.3 53.1 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.7 13.4 15.0 0.3 61.4 55.8 11.8 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------