***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.5 13.8 0.0 50.8 51.2 11.8 12.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.4 13.6 0.1 50.0 51.8 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.8 13.9 -0.1 49.9 50.8 13.1 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.6 11.4 0.0 52.2 52.1 8.0 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 11.4 0.0 51.3 52.1 10.0 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.2 9.4 0.2 60.5 55.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.6 13.8 0.1 51.1 52.6 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.4 9.4 0.1 53.8 53.8 2.9 5.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 11.7 0.1 52.8 52.4 10.8 12.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.0 10.3 0.1 53.4 53.2 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.7 10.9 0.1 50.6 52.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.1 10.1 0.1 52.9 53.5 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.5 9.6 0.1 57.3 53.1 10.5 11.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.7 11.7 0.1 50.2 52.8 11.8 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 12.5 0.0 53.8 52.7 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.6 10.4 0.1 54.6 53.6 10.9 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 13.6 0.1 51.0 52.4 12.2 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.6 9.7 0.2 54.9 54.7 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.3 13.6 0.0 49.0 50.9 11.8 12.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.0 7.4 0.3 57.9 56.0 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.2 13.1 0.0 50.8 51.7 10.7 12.1 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.0 13.3 0.0 49.9 50.5 11.3 12.0 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.6 13.4 0.0 49.1 50.6 11.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.1 11.5 0.1 51.6 52.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.7 12.4 0.0 49.8 51.3 11.7 12.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.0 9.3 0.1 55.2 53.0 9.7 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.7 13.2 0.0 50.4 51.4 11.6 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.6 11.7 0.1 54.7 52.4 10.4 11.0 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.6 9.0 0.2 54.4 55.1 7.5 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.0 13.7 0.1 52.4 52.0 11.7 12.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------