***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.7 12.2 -0.6 41.5 43.0 10.9 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.4 12.0 -0.4 39.8 43.2 11.0 12.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.2 12.4 -0.5 40.7 42.2 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.3 9.7 -0.5 46.0 42.7 7.2 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 9.9 10.3 -0.4 42.2 42.7 9.4 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.0 9.6 7.9 -0.3 43.3 43.5 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.3 12.0 -0.5 41.0 43.3 10.7 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.9 8.0 -0.3 42.5 43.9 2.9 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.0 10.6 -0.3 42.1 43.7 10.7 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.2 9.0 -0.3 41.4 43.7 10.5 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.9 9.9 -0.4 41.7 42.9 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.7 8.8 -0.4 41.2 42.7 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.2 10.7 8.8 -0.3 44.1 44.1 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.5 10.5 -0.2 43.8 46.7 10.8 11.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.1 11.2 -0.4 43.5 44.0 11.4 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.2 9.3 -0.4 40.2 43.0 10.8 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.2 11.8 -0.4 41.2 43.4 11.4 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.4 8.5 -0.3 41.6 44.2 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.6 12.0 -0.4 40.0 43.1 11.2 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.9 6.4 -0.2 41.7 45.4 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.1 11.9 -0.4 43.3 43.0 10.3 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.3 11.8 -0.4 41.6 43.0 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.1 11.9 -0.3 42.1 44.5 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.1 10.4 -0.3 44.7 44.8 10.3 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.5 11.2 -0.6 44.8 42.1 10.9 12.2 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.7 10.3 8.2 -0.2 45.9 45.3 10.1 10.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.8 11.7 -0.6 43.2 43.0 11.0 12.0 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.2 10.2 -0.4 43.8 43.2 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.8 7.7 -0.2 41.0 44.7 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.8 12.2 -0.5 40.2 43.0 11.0 12.6 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------