***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 11.7 12.1 13.1 1.2 68.4 67.1 9.4 10.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.8 12.7 1.0 62.4 63.3 9.7 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 13.0 13.5 13.0 0.9 61.4 63.1 11.1 12.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 7.9 8.7 10.0 0.6 60.3 58.9 6.5 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 9.1 9.7 11.0 0.8 63.7 62.9 8.6 8.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 8.2 8.3 7.9 0.4 59.8 57.3 7.3 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 11.2 12.0 12.8 1.1 65.4 64.3 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 3.5 3.8 8.1 0.6 60.1 59.8 2.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.8 11.0 0.7 63.0 62.6 9.3 9.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 10.2 10.3 9.2 0.6 61.6 60.8 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 9.5 10.0 10.3 0.6 61.7 60.1 8.7 9.3 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 8.3 8.5 9.2 0.7 61.4 61.4 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 9.4 10.1 9.3 0.7 63.8 62.3 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 10.6 10.8 10.8 0.7 59.3 61.6 9.4 10.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 10.9 11.1 11.5 0.6 62.8 60.8 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 10.4 10.9 9.9 0.7 63.7 62.9 9.3 10.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 11.1 12.0 12.4 1.0 61.2 62.8 10.0 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 8.4 8.9 8.7 0.6 59.1 60.9 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 11.0 11.3 12.6 0.9 60.8 61.9 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 4.6 5.3 6.9 0.8 64.8 63.4 4.1 4.4 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 10.1 10.6 12.4 0.7 62.5 62.5 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 10.4 10.8 12.4 0.8 58.1 60.4 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 10.7 11.2 12.4 0.8 61.8 61.8 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 10.1 10.5 10.8 0.6 57.9 60.3 8.8 9.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 10.8 11.1 12.3 1.1 68.2 65.2 9.6 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 9.6 9.8 8.5 0.7 61.8 62.4 8.2 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 12.4 12.4 12.8 1.3 68.9 67.1 9.1 11.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 9.2 9.3 10.4 0.6 59.9 59.4 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 8.0 8.4 7.9 0.7 60.9 61.7 6.0 7.8 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 11.1 12.1 12.9 1.1 64.3 64.0 9.8 10.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------