***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 57.3 54.0 69.0 100.1 55.5 50.9 44.4 49.0 62.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 38.2 60.8 57.8 93.3 50.0 45.7 44.6 60.8 67.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 40.2 60.4 63.4 93.9 50.9 46.8 47.3 60.3 85.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 57.5 71.9 69.2 93.8 50.6 44.9 54.6 71.7 80.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 49.7 60.9 68.1 94.9 51.0 46.3 51.7 60.8 73.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 42.8 52.7 71.5 83.4 36.1 37.8 49.0 58.8 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 56.8 50.7 58.7 93.7 49.8 46.6 27.2 50.8 59.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 74.5 92.8 71.8 86.6 42.2 41.3 77.2 96.8 109.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 45.6 54.7 69.3 93.6 51.0 46.4 42.1 54.7 61.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 53.9 58.2 75.4 88.6 44.0 42.8 53.9 64.9 75.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 39.9 45.2 64.6 90.8 46.5 43.3 37.9 48.0 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 42.3 49.2 63.9 89.1 45.3 42.1 41.4 55.8 64.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 34.3 43.0 69.8 89.8 44.6 42.1 41.0 45.1 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 56.8 61.4 76.3 86.3 40.3 40.9 55.2 69.3 84.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 38.1 45.1 59.5 92.2 47.0 44.3 41.9 46.5 51.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 41.2 49.8 65.4 90.6 46.1 42.5 41.9 51.0 67.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 34.7 43.9 58.3 95.5 49.5 45.0 38.7 44.0 65.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 55.6 62.6 80.5 87.4 41.9 42.8 55.1 67.4 76.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 46.1 70.2 58.2 92.3 50.5 45.3 39.1 69.9 80.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 69.3 54.4 82.6 89.6 44.4 43.8 47.6 60.3 73.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 41.9 58.7 69.2 99.6 55.3 49.3 51.4 57.6 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 39.1 50.4 58.6 93.1 47.8 42.8 40.7 51.3 64.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 39.5 46.6 59.3 89.4 47.3 43.3 36.9 48.7 59.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 55.9 67.0 71.5 87.6 42.0 42.5 58.7 74.1 78.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 41.8 59.3 75.1 98.8 53.1 48.8 40.6 58.4 70.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 33.5 42.3 59.3 80.4 33.9 35.9 42.0 50.5 62.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 46.3 69.2 73.5 99.9 54.2 50.6 38.2 62.5 78.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 42.2 49.6 64.1 90.8 46.4 43.3 41.7 51.0 58.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 71.9 80.9 81.5 87.4 42.3 42.5 72.8 86.9 103.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 55.3 44.9 58.9 93.1 49.8 46.5 30.0 45.0 72.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------