***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 7.7 19.7 17.1 97.6 62.1 47.2 6.5 14.2 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.1 16.2 15.7 104.1 61.4 49.1 7.7 13.8 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.0 21.8 16.5 97.7 61.8 46.8 8.2 18.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 9.9 26.9 19.0 109.2 66.5 51.9 11.7 17.1 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 7.3 15.3 17.3 99.6 63.1 48.1 9.3 12.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.7 16.8 19.3 93.1 57.5 47.0 10.5 15.3 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.0 16.5 107.9 61.7 49.8 2.7 7.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 17.0 34.2 20.3 99.0 60.3 50.3 19.5 24.6 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.1 20.4 17.7 96.5 60.2 45.9 10.3 17.9 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.5 16.7 20.5 95.9 58.9 47.8 8.7 13.9 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.5 20.1 15.9 95.3 64.4 49.2 6.1 16.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.2 17.2 97.3 62.6 49.9 7.2 13.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.8 18.2 95.3 60.3 47.8 5.7 12.0 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 9.5 26.8 21.8 97.8 61.0 46.5 16.4 20.3 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.8 15.4 15.5 108.9 67.6 51.1 3.4 8.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.7 20.6 16.6 95.9 64.7 48.5 6.7 13.1 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.1 18.3 16.8 113.2 65.6 50.8 9.1 14.8 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.3 22.3 22.7 94.4 59.4 47.4 13.2 18.9 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.6 19.8 15.4 100.1 61.1 48.1 4.7 17.3 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.2 23.2 99.4 60.0 50.7 8.0 12.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.5 19.3 17.6 102.5 62.9 46.7 7.2 15.1 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.6 20.3 17.5 115.6 67.7 50.8 6.7 10.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 7.6 19.6 15.7 96.5 62.2 46.4 8.2 15.5 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.4 24.3 19.6 95.1 61.5 47.0 12.5 22.6 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.5 20.9 19.3 103.5 60.7 49.2 9.9 17.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.2 13.7 15.9 89.9 60.2 47.3 4.6 6.8 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.6 17.8 18.3 98.9 60.5 48.2 7.0 14.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.4 18.0 17.5 106.4 67.6 51.4 6.6 13.5 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 16.3 33.2 23.0 97.0 60.5 48.6 14.2 26.6 35.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 6.2 18.9 15.7 101.1 61.1 48.5 7.8 13.4 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------