***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 13.9 23.8 124.0 67.9 55.0 7.5 11.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.7 18.4 99.3 59.3 47.4 4.4 5.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.9 21.9 115.1 66.9 52.9 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 20.5 25.6 122.4 68.4 55.7 5.8 9.5 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.3 16.3 24.8 121.7 69.0 54.8 6.8 12.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 15.5 25.9 108.7 63.1 54.3 5.8 11.7 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 17.8 99.3 58.3 47.4 4.3 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.0 28.2 23.8 106.4 64.4 52.7 11.8 16.7 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.5 15.8 26.3 125.5 70.6 55.9 5.1 8.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.0 20.6 27.0 114.5 67.1 53.9 7.8 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.4 22.4 116.7 69.3 54.4 5.8 8.9 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.3 17.0 21.4 111.4 67.6 54.2 4.0 11.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.4 24.8 116.1 68.7 55.0 4.4 8.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.9 16.2 25.9 98.9 59.0 49.3 8.0 12.7 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.4 22.5 117.1 67.9 55.7 5.3 7.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 15.7 17.5 24.0 121.0 69.9 55.6 4.1 6.1 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.1 17.8 101.0 60.1 48.1 2.4 6.3 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 18.7 28.7 112.5 65.3 54.5 4.4 12.7 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.4 12.9 19.4 101.4 61.0 48.5 4.6 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.1 17.0 27.6 109.5 65.8 55.4 6.9 12.7 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.7 25.5 130.3 73.2 56.3 5.5 7.7 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.8 18.4 97.7 60.1 47.0 6.5 9.0 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.9 20.9 105.5 60.5 50.3 4.2 7.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.9 16.6 25.3 109.4 64.6 52.0 4.9 10.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.7 27.5 128.4 70.4 55.3 4.2 7.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.8 18.0 20.5 102.6 61.2 50.8 5.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.3 25.6 124.7 68.8 55.1 6.1 10.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.0 17.7 24.0 119.2 67.9 55.6 5.2 11.6 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.1 22.3 28.6 110.8 65.1 55.0 12.7 16.3 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.8 19.2 103.6 60.9 49.0 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------