***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.4 16.5 19.3 113.6 65.3 55.9 8.2 11.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.3 16.5 108.6 60.6 53.3 6.6 10.2 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.7 17.4 101.0 56.2 51.2 8.5 10.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.0 15.6 16.6 94.1 58.1 48.9 6.9 11.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.9 15.2 16.6 91.5 54.7 44.4 7.0 14.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 6.1 9.1 15.8 72.7 43.4 37.8 6.4 10.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.1 16.2 101.5 58.1 50.3 3.8 10.2 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.8 15.6 14.3 75.1 42.8 39.7 13.9 18.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.1 11.1 17.0 92.7 55.7 46.6 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.3 11.8 16.0 81.6 47.2 41.8 7.2 12.7 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.2 12.0 17.1 90.2 51.3 46.1 2.9 9.3 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.1 14.3 80.9 47.6 43.1 5.8 8.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.0 9.9 14.8 75.4 46.1 39.0 4.2 10.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.5 14.1 19.3 92.3 52.1 46.8 8.3 13.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 14.4 16.1 95.9 62.9 49.6 1.8 6.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.5 14.7 79.2 46.6 41.1 6.5 11.3 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.3 16.4 104.7 57.9 50.6 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.6 8.9 16.4 78.7 45.4 40.5 6.6 12.3 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.8 15.7 16.6 109.1 61.2 54.2 10.3 13.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 11.2 15.9 73.9 44.2 39.8 8.1 12.3 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.1 15.6 17.7 99.4 57.3 50.1 6.0 10.5 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.4 13.5 16.4 102.2 58.0 49.2 5.2 8.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.8 15.5 16.1 98.9 55.2 51.1 6.4 11.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.8 13.3 17.2 88.1 50.4 44.8 6.6 13.3 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.3 10.1 17.8 89.1 54.8 46.5 5.7 8.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.5 7.0 12.0 62.0 36.8 33.8 5.0 9.1 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.4 20.0 107.2 62.3 53.5 6.2 11.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.7 15.1 89.3 56.3 46.6 6.2 9.3 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.0 16.5 16.3 74.6 43.6 38.8 12.2 19.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.8 16.8 108.2 61.8 53.4 8.3 12.8 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------