***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.7 22.5 -0.1 50.1 48.4 23.3 23.7 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.4 22.6 0.0 53.0 50.0 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.1 22.8 -0.1 52.3 49.5 23.1 24.0 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.5 20.2 0.1 55.6 52.2 16.1 16.7 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.3 21.1 0.1 53.1 51.3 23.6 24.1 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.4 19.1 0.4 64.0 57.0 21.7 22.9 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.9 22.5 -0.1 51.6 48.8 22.7 23.8 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.8 19.4 0.3 61.0 55.1 11.4 12.2 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.9 21.6 0.1 54.1 52.3 22.7 23.7 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.9 20.2 0.3 58.1 54.0 22.7 23.4 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.1 21.2 0.2 58.1 54.0 23.0 23.9 24.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.5 20.4 0.4 63.5 56.5 21.9 23.1 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.4 20.3 0.3 59.7 55.5 23.2 23.9 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.3 21.2 0.0 54.3 49.6 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.0 22.0 0.4 59.5 55.9 23.4 24.0 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.2 25.2 20.7 0.3 59.6 55.0 23.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.7 22.4 0.0 53.0 50.4 22.5 23.7 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 22.0 23.1 19.6 0.2 55.7 52.9 22.2 23.0 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.9 22.7 0.1 55.2 51.3 22.9 23.7 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 17.2 18.6 17.3 0.2 53.9 53.4 17.4 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.8 22.3 -0.1 51.5 49.0 23.1 23.8 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.2 22.2 -0.1 52.4 49.6 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.5 22.8 0.2 57.7 53.1 23.4 24.1 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.5 21.3 0.1 54.8 51.4 22.7 23.4 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 22.8 23.7 21.0 -0.2 48.2 46.8 23.3 23.7 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 24.2 24.4 20.2 1.0 74.6 65.7 22.6 23.5 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.7 21.8 -0.2 49.1 47.4 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.9 21.0 0.3 59.1 55.3 23.4 24.3 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 17.1 18.3 18.7 0.1 52.5 51.7 17.3 18.3 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.0 22.6 -0.1 52.2 48.7 22.8 23.9 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------