***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.7 24.5 0.7 57.7 56.0 22.6 24.3 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.5 24.6 0.9 61.5 57.6 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.1 24.7 0.7 56.7 55.9 22.7 24.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 22.5 0.8 59.5 57.0 15.8 17.5 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.6 22.8 0.7 59.0 55.3 23.4 24.9 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.2 20.5 0.7 59.5 55.3 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.4 24.6 0.9 62.1 57.7 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.3 21.0 0.6 59.0 54.4 10.7 12.9 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.3 23.1 0.7 59.8 55.3 22.5 23.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.9 21.8 0.6 59.5 54.9 22.6 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.0 22.6 0.7 60.9 55.8 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.3 22.1 0.7 61.0 55.7 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.3 21.4 0.7 59.7 55.5 23.5 24.6 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.2 22.6 0.5 53.9 53.7 23.3 24.1 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.0 23.7 1.1 64.5 59.9 23.5 25.6 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.8 22.2 0.8 60.7 56.3 23.5 25.5 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.5 24.5 0.9 63.0 58.1 22.3 23.9 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.7 21.2 0.6 56.8 54.4 22.3 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.0 24.7 0.9 60.5 57.3 22.6 24.0 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.2 19.1 18.5 0.3 54.1 52.7 17.1 18.9 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.0 23.9 0.6 56.9 54.5 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.6 24.2 0.8 59.5 56.7 22.9 24.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.8 25.1 24.6 0.8 59.3 56.9 23.0 24.4 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.2 22.7 0.6 56.4 54.6 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.2 22.8 0.6 56.7 55.0 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.7 22.0 1.4 68.1 61.7 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.5 23.7 0.7 57.3 56.0 23.1 23.9 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 22.9 1.0 62.6 58.0 23.6 25.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.1 19.0 20.2 0.4 54.7 53.2 17.6 18.2 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.3 24.6 0.8 58.9 56.8 23.0 24.3 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------