***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.9 24.0 22.5 -0.4 44.1 45.8 23.0 24.9 26.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.9 22.7 -0.1 51.8 49.1 23.8 24.7 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.5 22.7 -0.4 44.8 46.0 23.8 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.4 16.9 20.4 -0.4 43.7 45.4 16.1 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 22.6 24.2 20.7 -0.6 43.8 43.9 23.0 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.7 18.6 -0.5 44.1 45.0 21.7 23.1 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.4 24.4 22.7 -0.1 50.6 49.1 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 11.0 12.3 19.1 -0.5 43.5 44.7 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.2 23.7 21.0 -0.6 44.0 44.1 23.0 24.1 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.6 19.8 -0.5 43.8 44.2 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 22.5 23.8 20.5 -0.5 44.1 44.5 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 21.3 22.9 20.1 -0.4 44.3 45.6 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 22.5 24.0 19.3 -0.5 42.4 45.1 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.9 20.7 -0.5 45.1 45.1 23.8 24.3 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 23.2 24.4 21.6 -0.1 47.8 49.1 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 23.1 24.3 20.1 -0.5 43.6 45.0 23.8 25.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.9 22.6 0.0 52.7 49.7 23.2 24.8 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.6 23.0 19.2 -0.5 42.4 43.7 22.5 23.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.4 22.7 -0.1 52.3 49.1 23.4 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.9 17.4 16.8 -0.5 42.2 43.8 16.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.8 -0.6 41.7 43.5 23.4 24.2 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.2 22.4 0.0 53.1 49.4 23.5 25.0 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.4 22.6 -0.1 51.3 48.7 23.8 24.4 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.4 20.7 -0.5 44.7 44.8 23.2 23.8 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.5 20.8 -0.5 42.0 44.2 23.2 24.2 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.6 20.0 0.2 53.6 52.5 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.4 24.0 21.7 -0.4 44.8 45.8 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 23.2 24.6 20.7 -0.4 44.4 46.3 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.7 17.7 18.3 -0.6 42.5 43.3 17.1 18.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.6 22.6 -0.2 49.6 47.8 23.5 24.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------