***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.6 23.4 1.1 63.0 60.5 21.7 24.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.2 26.2 23.4 1.0 62.8 59.9 22.7 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.7 23.7 1.2 63.3 60.9 22.4 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.4 21.2 1.6 71.4 65.1 14.8 17.7 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.2 22.4 1.7 69.3 64.9 22.5 24.9 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 24.8 25.4 20.8 2.4 76.0 70.2 22.0 22.9 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.3 23.2 0.9 62.3 59.1 22.7 24.2 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 14.4 15.0 20.9 2.2 75.6 68.8 11.7 12.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.8 23.1 1.7 70.2 65.5 22.3 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 25.7 25.9 21.7 2.0 71.9 66.9 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 26.0 26.3 22.8 2.0 72.9 67.3 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 24.8 25.4 22.0 2.3 77.7 69.8 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 25.8 26.3 22.1 2.2 75.4 69.0 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.2 26.0 22.3 1.2 62.5 61.0 22.0 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 26.2 26.8 23.2 1.7 74.6 66.3 23.4 24.7 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.9 22.3 2.1 74.3 68.4 23.0 24.6 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.4 25.2 23.0 1.0 63.6 59.4 22.3 23.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 25.4 25.8 21.0 1.9 70.7 65.9 21.5 23.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.4 23.5 1.1 63.1 60.8 22.1 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 20.4 21.0 19.0 2.1 74.1 68.0 17.4 18.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.7 26.1 23.6 1.4 66.5 62.5 22.2 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.6 22.8 0.9 62.3 58.6 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.8 23.7 1.4 64.1 62.4 22.5 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.5 25.3 22.6 1.5 66.6 63.4 22.0 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.8 22.1 1.0 63.0 60.1 22.2 24.7 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 25.2 26.4 22.0 3.2 85.3 76.2 22.1 23.8 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.7 22.7 1.0 62.5 60.0 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 26.6 27.0 22.2 1.9 74.7 67.3 22.5 24.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 20.6 21.2 20.2 1.8 70.3 65.6 16.8 18.4 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.7 23.4 1.0 62.0 59.5 22.3 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------