***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 20.7 20.2 19.7 -1.9 25.7 27.1 21.2 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 21.0 21.2 19.7 -2.0 27.1 27.6 22.0 23.0 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 21.1 20.9 20.0 -1.7 27.7 29.6 21.2 23.4 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.3 13.9 16.8 -1.5 27.3 31.6 14.4 16.0 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.5 21.0 18.3 -1.5 28.8 32.5 21.4 23.5 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 22.1 20.3 16.4 -0.7 41.2 42.2 19.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 20.4 20.3 19.3 -2.2 24.6 25.4 21.7 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 9.6 16.6 -1.0 37.0 39.2 9.1 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.9 20.4 19.4 -1.3 30.7 34.5 20.6 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.9 20.8 17.7 -1.1 35.9 38.2 20.6 22.6 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.1 20.5 18.8 -1.2 34.1 36.6 20.5 22.7 23.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.4 20.2 17.5 -1.0 36.5 39.0 20.0 22.0 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 23.0 20.6 18.2 -1.1 34.5 37.7 20.6 22.5 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.1 19.3 -1.3 32.7 34.4 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.6 19.4 -1.4 28.0 32.9 21.7 22.1 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 23.9 21.2 18.1 -1.2 32.2 35.9 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 20.2 20.6 19.3 -2.0 25.8 27.6 21.1 22.0 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 20.3 16.9 -1.1 35.0 37.8 20.2 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.8 21.1 19.9 -1.7 28.5 29.7 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 15.9 14.8 -1.0 35.1 38.0 15.7 17.0 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.0 20.5 19.9 -1.6 27.9 30.9 20.6 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.2 19.5 -1.8 25.9 28.1 21.6 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.3 21.7 20.2 -1.4 30.7 33.5 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 20.9 20.7 19.1 -1.3 32.3 35.4 20.8 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 20.9 20.7 18.5 -2.0 23.6 26.5 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 22.4 21.0 16.8 -0.6 41.7 43.1 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 20.5 20.3 18.9 -2.1 24.1 25.4 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 21.5 21.5 18.1 -1.2 30.7 35.5 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 15.7 16.1 -1.2 34.0 36.9 15.6 17.1 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 20.8 20.7 19.7 -2.0 25.7 26.8 21.7 22.9 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------