***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.7 12.7 0.0 50.0 50.0 11.4 11.7 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 12.4 0.0 51.0 49.2 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.4 12.7 0.0 50.3 49.3 12.8 13.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.4 10.1 0.0 52.7 49.8 7.8 8.2 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.6 10.5 0.0 52.1 51.0 10.0 10.6 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.3 8.4 0.2 57.9 55.9 8.9 9.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 12.4 0.0 50.0 49.0 11.5 11.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.1 8.1 0.1 52.0 52.6 3.7 4.0 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.1 10.6 0.0 51.1 50.0 10.9 11.1 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.2 9.0 0.0 50.4 50.9 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.9 9.9 0.1 51.5 52.2 10.4 10.8 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.2 9.0 0.1 52.8 53.9 8.8 9.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 8.8 0.1 53.3 52.6 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.3 11.8 10.4 -0.1 49.5 48.5 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.3 11.5 0.1 58.1 53.0 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 9.5 0.1 55.4 53.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.9 12.2 0.0 51.9 49.3 11.7 11.9 12.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.6 8.4 0.0 51.0 51.4 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.7 12.4 0.0 50.7 48.9 11.2 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 6.5 0.1 53.2 54.1 5.3 5.7 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.2 11.9 0.0 50.0 49.1 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.2 12.1 -0.1 48.3 46.9 10.8 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.4 12.2 -0.1 49.4 48.6 10.7 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.2 10.3 0.0 50.0 49.7 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.4 11.4 -0.1 50.7 48.6 11.1 11.4 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.4 8.6 0.4 65.1 60.9 9.7 10.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 12.1 0.0 52.4 50.5 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.3 10.6 0.1 56.8 52.6 9.8 10.2 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 7.6 0.0 49.1 50.1 7.7 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.0 12.6 -0.1 49.2 48.3 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------