***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 14.2 0.4 58.3 55.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.1 14.2 0.5 57.7 56.9 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.9 14.2 0.4 58.1 55.8 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.5 11.7 0.5 57.9 56.4 8.3 9.3 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.5 11.6 0.3 55.3 54.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.3 9.7 0.3 54.2 54.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 14.2 0.5 58.1 56.7 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.0 9.3 0.1 51.4 52.3 4.1 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 11.8 0.2 55.0 53.2 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 10.2 0.2 52.1 52.5 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.9 10.9 0.2 54.4 54.0 10.9 11.8 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 10.0 0.2 52.6 53.1 9.7 10.4 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.4 9.7 0.1 51.3 52.3 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.2 11.8 0.2 55.8 54.4 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 13.1 0.6 62.0 58.7 12.7 13.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.1 10.5 0.3 54.9 54.3 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.5 14.0 0.5 58.5 56.9 12.6 13.0 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 9.4 0.1 52.0 52.5 9.8 10.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.2 14.1 0.5 58.0 57.1 11.9 13.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.8 7.3 0.1 50.4 51.1 5.9 6.8 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.4 13.2 0.3 56.3 53.9 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.7 13.8 0.5 59.9 56.5 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 0.5 57.8 57.0 11.2 12.4 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 11.5 0.2 54.1 53.8 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.5 12.7 0.4 57.3 54.9 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.9 9.6 0.4 57.7 55.8 10.4 10.9 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.7 13.5 0.5 58.0 56.0 11.3 12.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.6 12.1 0.5 59.3 57.3 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.9 8.8 0.1 51.5 52.1 8.1 8.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.3 14.2 0.5 57.7 56.2 12.2 12.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------