***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.9 12.9 -0.2 47.9 46.0 11.0 12.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.6 12.8 -0.1 50.6 48.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.3 13.0 -0.2 47.9 47.4 13.1 14.5 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.1 10.5 -0.2 50.3 48.7 7.9 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.4 10.6 -0.1 49.5 49.1 9.6 11.4 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.9 8.8 0.1 52.6 52.0 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.5 12.9 -0.1 51.4 49.5 11.5 12.5 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.4 8.6 0.1 51.3 52.2 3.2 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.7 10.8 -0.1 48.4 49.5 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.7 9.4 0.0 50.5 51.0 10.8 11.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 10.1 0.0 52.5 51.3 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 9.3 0.1 50.9 51.6 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.8 8.8 -0.2 44.9 47.4 10.2 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.3 10.6 -0.2 45.1 46.3 11.5 12.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.0 11.8 0.0 51.7 50.7 11.6 13.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.3 9.6 -0.1 49.7 49.4 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.3 12.7 0.0 52.0 50.3 11.6 13.3 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 8.7 0.0 50.0 50.9 9.4 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.5 12.8 -0.1 48.7 48.1 11.4 12.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.1 6.6 0.0 47.0 49.8 5.6 6.4 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.4 12.1 -0.2 46.1 47.0 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 12.4 -0.1 49.5 48.4 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.1 12.5 -0.2 46.2 47.4 11.1 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 10.5 -0.1 48.8 49.2 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.2 11.4 -0.3 45.5 45.2 11.0 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.9 8.8 0.3 56.6 54.1 9.6 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.6 12.2 -0.2 47.4 46.3 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.2 10.9 -0.1 50.7 49.6 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 8.0 0.0 48.5 50.0 7.5 9.5 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.6 12.9 -0.1 49.5 47.8 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------