***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 1.1 67.3 65.3 11.0 12.0 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.3 13.3 1.0 67.3 64.1 10.8 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 14.9 14.7 13.7 1.2 70.2 66.1 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.1 11.2 1.3 72.3 67.1 7.2 9.0 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.8 12.4 11.7 1.3 74.6 68.7 9.2 9.9 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 10.3 11.0 9.8 1.8 85.1 75.7 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.1 13.3 1.0 67.2 63.7 10.6 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.3 5.5 9.2 1.4 74.8 71.1 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.5 11.9 1.4 73.9 70.5 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.4 10.2 1.4 74.6 71.0 10.6 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.8 11.1 1.4 75.9 71.7 10.5 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.8 10.2 1.5 77.8 72.3 8.3 9.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 11.7 12.5 10.3 1.7 81.5 74.8 10.0 10.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.1 11.5 1.2 70.9 68.5 10.6 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.3 12.5 1.3 74.6 69.0 11.2 11.8 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.7 10.8 1.6 79.7 72.8 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.7 13.0 1.0 67.5 64.3 11.3 12.3 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 10.6 10.9 9.7 1.5 76.2 72.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 13.4 13.2 13.3 1.1 67.9 65.0 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 6.9 7.2 7.9 1.7 78.7 74.4 4.7 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.5 13.0 1.2 71.6 67.9 10.5 11.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.2 12.9 0.9 63.5 62.7 10.2 11.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.4 12.5 13.2 1.2 70.6 67.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.4 11.6 1.3 73.3 70.3 10.0 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.9 12.6 1.1 67.2 63.9 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 11.3 12.2 10.1 2.1 87.8 78.3 9.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.4 13.2 1.1 68.0 64.9 10.8 11.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.2 11.7 1.4 76.3 70.3 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 9.9 10.1 8.9 1.4 76.5 72.2 7.6 8.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.3 13.5 1.0 67.4 63.7 10.9 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------