***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.1 9.9 -1.3 27.8 30.3 9.3 10.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.5 -1.6 24.8 26.4 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 10.6 10.2 9.9 -1.5 26.2 26.8 10.5 12.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 5.8 5.5 7.1 -1.7 22.8 23.9 6.0 7.3 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 7.6 7.7 8.1 -1.4 26.1 27.4 7.9 8.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 6.5 6.7 5.4 -1.4 25.2 27.0 6.9 7.4 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 8.9 9.1 9.4 -1.6 24.4 26.4 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.5 5.4 -1.3 27.2 28.6 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 8.3 8.6 8.0 -1.6 23.7 24.9 8.8 9.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 8.0 8.7 6.3 -1.5 25.6 26.3 9.0 9.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.3 7.5 -1.5 24.8 25.9 8.4 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 6.5 6.4 6.4 -1.2 28.3 29.6 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.0 6.6 -1.3 27.9 28.9 8.1 8.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 9.0 9.2 7.8 -1.5 24.5 25.8 9.5 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 9.1 9.1 8.6 -1.4 23.4 25.5 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 8.6 8.8 7.1 -1.3 27.7 28.4 9.3 9.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 9.5 9.5 9.2 -1.7 24.6 25.6 9.8 11.0 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 6.7 6.5 5.8 -1.5 23.3 26.2 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 9.1 8.9 9.4 -1.7 24.1 25.4 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 3.3 4.2 -1.2 30.9 31.4 3.4 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.2 9.3 -1.5 26.0 26.5 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 8.9 8.9 9.3 -1.7 23.4 24.4 9.5 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 8.8 8.9 9.2 -1.8 22.9 23.6 9.4 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 8.3 8.5 7.8 -1.6 22.6 24.9 8.7 9.6 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.7 8.9 9.0 -1.4 29.0 29.7 9.0 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 7.6 7.7 6.0 -1.0 30.6 33.3 7.8 8.6 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.0 9.6 -1.3 30.0 31.7 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.6 -1.5 22.5 25.1 8.1 8.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.5 5.1 4.9 -1.6 23.6 25.6 6.1 7.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 9.1 9.1 9.7 -1.6 24.5 26.4 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------