***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 35.6 43.4 50.6 75.6 35.8 34.2 40.9 49.0 61.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 32.1 40.5 45.4 74.7 34.6 35.3 39.5 61.0 67.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 33.3 50.0 52.7 81.6 38.2 37.2 40.6 58.1 74.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 57.7 67.9 66.1 92.6 48.3 45.2 55.5 73.8 85.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 48.4 54.7 62.9 92.4 46.3 43.7 50.4 58.7 74.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 47.5 61.3 82.7 101.6 55.9 52.0 49.1 58.5 67.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 30.2 27.1 43.9 71.9 35.2 34.3 26.9 50.4 64.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 103.6 104.3 81.0 104.4 57.3 52.7 73.2 94.0 109.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 41.3 49.6 63.7 90.4 44.6 42.0 41.7 50.3 60.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 53.5 65.0 78.0 96.3 50.9 46.5 53.7 64.9 75.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 39.7 45.9 64.6 96.1 48.1 46.2 40.2 47.5 51.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 58.4 53.9 68.6 101.0 53.2 50.3 45.1 53.1 66.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 36.2 49.8 74.7 100.1 53.1 50.0 40.3 47.9 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 46.0 57.8 71.1 83.8 40.6 38.1 51.1 69.5 93.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 39.2 46.8 59.1 92.5 52.1 46.3 41.0 46.2 54.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 40.9 51.4 67.6 97.2 49.6 47.3 37.0 51.7 67.3 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 31.1 34.5 41.5 69.1 30.8 31.4 36.3 44.0 57.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 56.0 68.2 85.1 96.2 51.9 46.0 56.0 67.0 79.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 32.0 40.2 47.6 77.3 35.1 36.4 39.1 51.7 79.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 70.3 74.8 92.4 107.5 61.2 54.2 46.4 63.2 89.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 37.9 53.5 56.2 84.1 42.0 38.5 49.5 54.9 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 34.2 34.7 46.2 75.2 35.4 35.5 34.5 48.2 66.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 32.0 32.4 50.1 78.0 34.4 35.5 31.9 47.1 57.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 49.8 67.2 70.5 89.4 45.1 41.6 56.8 71.8 78.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 38.2 42.6 58.2 77.5 36.4 36.2 40.9 57.3 71.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 58.5 57.6 73.2 105.5 61.1 53.6 42.9 54.7 61.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 39.3 40.6 54.8 75.4 35.8 34.6 38.0 57.3 70.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 40.9 50.6 65.7 95.7 52.6 47.6 41.7 49.7 59.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 69.0 90.9 89.2 101.2 55.6 49.2 71.5 86.8 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 32.2 29.3 47.8 77.4 37.2 36.6 28.9 45.0 69.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------