***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.0 16.8 16.3 95.4 57.3 46.5 5.7 15.9 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 15.0 14.7 92.6 57.8 47.8 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.8 21.9 17.1 104.9 61.6 49.2 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.7 23.1 17.5 95.5 59.8 49.9 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.7 17.9 102.5 63.1 51.9 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.0 22.7 111.3 64.6 54.7 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.2 14.2 86.9 56.1 44.6 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 28.9 37.4 21.3 107.0 62.9 53.7 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.9 20.3 18.6 100.9 62.4 51.3 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.8 21.4 21.7 101.7 61.4 51.9 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.3 17.4 103.3 63.7 52.0 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.6 17.4 100.5 62.5 51.9 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.1 19.2 19.3 99.3 62.6 51.2 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 9.8 23.7 19.5 91.4 58.1 48.5 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.1 14.9 87.7 58.8 49.4 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.4 20.3 17.6 97.6 61.8 50.4 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.5 12.8 80.7 52.9 43.8 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 25.5 23.4 101.2 62.7 52.1 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 13.5 15.1 96.1 59.1 49.4 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 23.3 25.9 121.2 68.6 57.3 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.6 17.1 99.3 61.3 49.1 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.3 14.1 88.2 56.7 46.7 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.9 16.9 15.0 93.6 59.7 49.4 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.5 23.7 19.9 100.5 61.7 50.9 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.6 19.3 17.7 92.2 55.9 47.4 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.5 17.8 16.3 95.1 61.2 51.1 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 13.6 17.0 90.9 55.0 45.9 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.7 15.6 16.9 93.4 59.1 49.9 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 28.1 32.9 24.0 107.4 64.0 53.9 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.5 16.0 99.7 60.5 48.6 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------